兵马未动，粮草先行：后勤缘何压倒战略
作者:Michael Schrage 2013-02-19 (www.fortunechina.com)
论及军事，业余军迷总喜欢谈论谋略战术，而专业人士则研究后勤保障。两本有关二战史的新作则提醒我们，后勤在战争中为何如此之重要。保罗•肯尼迪的著作《工程师的胜利：谁决定了二战的胜负？》（Engineers of Victory: The Problem Solvers Who Turned the Tide in the Second World War）详细解释了盟军科学家、技术专家以及实业家改进和创新装备以令部队在战场上节节获胜的功绩。而史蒂芬•布迪安斯基的《布莱克特的战争：他击败了德国U型潜艇》（Blackett's War: The Men Who Defeated the Nazi U-Boats and Brought Science to the Art of Warfare）则讲述了一个鲜为人知的故事，一个默默无闻的英国物理学家通过令人震惊的技术与组织管理技巧扭转了整个战争的走势。
“战略思维”的信徒们或许会觉得这两本书里的说法不值一提。不怪他们——战争时期，后勤的地位远逊于战略。肯尼迪和布迪安斯基都将书中的主人公设定为首席创新官，他们负责盟军与轴心国补给供应线的生死战，但却都深陷于繁文缛节的官僚政治斗争之中。在这场斗争中，破坏敌人的供给线通常要比保护自己的补给线来得更加重要。 肯尼迪是一位学院派的大战略家，他也曾著有畅销书《大国的兴衰》（Rise and Fall of the Great Powers）。对他而言，这是一次成为专业人士的机会。书中的各章节讨论的都是军事上最棘手的挑战，比如如何安全地通过大西洋；如何取得制空权；如何在重兵把守的情况下抢滩登陆等等。这些惨烈的战役的重述与改写模仿了克劳塞维茨著名的警句：“战争中的一切看似都非常简单，但最简单的同时却也是最困难的。”在二战中，没有什么是简单的。 怎样的技术、战术、宣传、组织管理以及分析手段的综合，或者说是系统化运用，才使得盟军的胜利成为可能？在不止一场的战役中，什么样的领导品质能够带来决定性的优势？肯尼迪虽然是在全面论述战争，但他针对于上述问题的回答还是受到了他一贯的战略思维的影响。但越是对后勤创新有所了解，人们就越觉得宏大的战略作用甚微。 |
It's a military truism that amateurs talk strategy while professionals study logistics. Two engaging new World War II histories remind us why logistics matter more. Paul Kennedy's Engineers of Victory: The Problem Solvers Who Turned the Tide in the Second World War explains how Allied scientists, technologists and industrialists improvised and innovated their way to give their armed forces a fighting chance. And Stephen Budiansky'sBlackett's War: The Men Who Defeated the Nazi U-Boats and Brought Science to the Art of Warfare tells the little-known story of an obscure British physicist who applied extraordinary skills in technology and organizational management to transform the Allied war effort.
Disciples and devotees of "strategic thinking" might find both books humbling. They should. In wartime, logistics eats strategy for lunch. Kennedy and Budiansky cast their lead characters as chief innovation officers who struggle to manage bureaucratic battles even as they oversee life-and-death conflicts between Axis and Allied supply chains. In this competition, disrupting enemy supply chains often proves more important than protecting one's own. For Kennedy, an academic grand strategist who authored the best-selling Rise and Fall of the Great Powers, this is an opportunity to turn pro. Chapters are themed to the military's most daunting challenges: How to Get Convoys Safely Across The Atlantic; How to Win Command of the Air; How to Advance on an Enemy-held Shore, etc. These painful tales of iteration and adaptation mock Clausewitz's famous aphorism: "Everything in war is very simple, but the simplest thing is difficult." In World War II, nothing was ever simple. What mix -- or system -- of technical, tactical, doctrinal, organizational, and analytical ingredients made the Allied victories possible? What leadership qualities conferred competitive advantage for more than a battle? While comprehensively informed, Kennedy's answers are inflected by his lofty strategic perspective. But the closer one examines the logistical innovations, the more they overshadow grand strategy. |
相比较而言，人们越了解帕特里克•布莱克特，就越会被他的事迹所震惊。从防空火炮到反潜装备，从战略轰炸到原子弹，整个二战之中，布莱克特始终居于盟军武器装备的设计、理论以及决策的中心。这位曾在1948年角逐诺贝尔奖的物理学家曾经是英国海军的一名军官，他通过将简单的数学、实验以及数据分析进行极其精巧的跨学科综合应用，彻底改变了他所参与开发的每一件武器装备。
经过在海军和拉瑟福德郡卡文迪什实验室的历练，布莱克特深知如何把事情搞定。他的传记作者认为，布莱克特早就应该为大众所知。“布莱克特堪称他那一代科学家中的传奇人物，因为他能将对物理学与数学的深厚功底与非凡的实践技能结合起来，”布迪安斯基写道。“当他去进行实际操作时，他还会展现出其他同事所称之为的‘卓越的深思熟虑’的天赋。” 《布莱克特的战争》一书不仅是一本有关科学家或军事家的传记文学，它还是一本精心写就，有着详实史料的精英科学家在战争时期动向的社会历史著作。本书中讲述了希特勒崛起之后，德国的学术界开始驱逐犹太裔科学家。而当时的英国，无论从机构上还是组织上都没有做好准备，有效地利用亨利•蒂泽德和布莱克特这些由科学人才转变而来的顶尖科学家，把他们变成掌握技术的企业家。 “传统的军事理论认为，科学家的任务就是开发‘武器和装备’然后交到部队的手上就可以了，” 布迪安斯基写道。“但是如今，科学家们却可以深度参与到曾经只有军事指挥官才能触及的项目和行动中去。” 高大英俊、散发著领袖气质的布莱克特自然就是其中的典型。除了超高的智商和堂堂的仪表之外，布莱克特的影响力还体现在他的分析、实验以及建议可以令同事或是合作者产生醍醐灌顶感觉的天赋。他能够启发他人的智慧，激发他人的灵感。 开发新的雷达系统或是在飞机上增加副油箱所需的分分秒秒都决定着前方成千上万名士兵和平民百姓的生死。训练技术人员或是团队成员以开发似乎不断增多的技术改进开始变成一种不受赞赏的人力资源的负担。能令对科学一窍不通的军队指挥官理解精密的统计数据分析开始成为一种科学的艺术。布莱克特所开创的“运筹学”就是后勤学作为新的新经验科学所取得的重大突破。事实上，他将军事上的作战区转化为未来战术和武器的试验场。 |
By contrast, the more closely one looks at Patrick Blackett, the more impressive he appears. From anti-aircraft gunnery to anti-submarine warfare, strategic bombing and the atomic bomb, Blackett was at or near the center of Allied military design, doctrine, and decision-making throughout the war. This British naval officer turned physicist (he went on to win the Nobel Prize in 1948) transformed every military service he counseled through the clever, interdisciplinary application of simple mathematics, experimentation, and data-driven advice.
A polished product of the Navy and Rutherford's Cavendish Lab, Blackett knew how to get things done. He richly deserves to be better known; his biographer delivers. "Blackett would become legendary among his fellow scientists for his ability to combine physical insight, mathematical insight and extraordinary practical skills," writes Budiansky. "[H]e displayed what one colleague would call 'his remarkable facility' of thinking most deeply when he was working with his hands.'" Far more than a scientific or military biography, Blackett's War is also a finely wrought and well-sourced social history of elite science's wartime mobilization. Hitler's rise, German academe's expulsion of its Jewish scientists, and the growing realization that Britain was institutionally and organizationally unprepared to effectively utilize its scientific talent turned elite scientists like Henry Tizard and Blackett into technocratic entrepreneurs. "The traditional military view was that the scientists' role was to develop 'weapons and gadgets,' hand them over, and that was that," Budiansky notes. "But now scientists were intimately involved in what previously had been the exclusive purview of military commanders, in running operations." Tall, handsome, and blessed with command presence, Blackett led by example. His influence derived not just from an intimidating intellect and style but a genius in making his analyses, experiments, and proposals palatable to his military colleagues and collaborators. He made others think better. He inspired insight. The time needed to develop a new radar system or add "drop tanks" to planes determined the fates of tens of thousands of soldiers and civilians. Training technicians and crews to exploit seemingly incremental technical enhancements became a human capital imperative that was often underappreciated. The ability to make sophisticated statistical analyses persuasively accessible to innumerate commanders emerged as a new scientific art form. "Operational research" -- Blackett's baby -- broke through as a new empirical science of logistics. In effect, he turned military theaters of operations into research laboratories for future tactics and weaponry. |
在布迪安斯基的书中，大西洋海战可谓是布莱克特战争的主战场，而他也是夺取最后胜利不可或缺的关键。作为曾写过密码破译历史畅销书的作者，布迪安斯基讲述了一段精彩的历史，即位于布莱切里公园的英国密码破译中心所破译的情报外加布莱克特的运筹学如何破解和摧毁了纳粹德国的“狼群战术”。
布迪安斯基叙述的中心就是发生在潜艇、货船和战机之间的惨烈战役。当时，英国的生死存亡完全依赖于货船所提供的补给、燃料和武器，而德国的U型潜艇却不断地将它们击沉。这种状况不能再持续下去，正如温斯顿•丘吉尔在他的回忆录中写的：“大西洋海战是整个二战的决定性战役。” 在肯尼迪的书中，大西洋海战也是被从头至尾地深入分析了一通。这场战役是全书的第一章，他明确地指出这场海战胜利中的战略因素。在肯尼迪的书中，新式武器系统、货船战术以及战斗机在货船易受攻击区域巡逻的警示作用比布莱克特和布莱切里密码破译中心所发挥的作用要更大。 “在这个独特的案例中，我们一次又一次地看到各种资源的‘合理利用’给了前线部队以获胜的武器，”肯尼迪写道。“我们也不止一次地看出，更先进的应用在何处成为战争转折点的时机，某个想法在何处变成现实，哪些人或组织是处于负责地位，以及他们所实现的技术突破是如何直接影响到战场上的战况。” 这个主题经常出现在肯尼迪对后勤创新在两栖登陆战、空战、对抗希特勒的闪电战以及大西洋战役的全面分析之中。每个章节都是独立的，但是它们整合成书的累积效应就与肯尼迪在核心观点相一致，即第二次世界大战的赢家是那些“在‘情报应用’中处于优势的一方。” 但是坦白说，肯尼迪的看法和结论似乎与他笼统地战略至上的观点相矛盾，也就是说，这些战略内在性地需要“更先进的应用”、“某些想法”以及“突破”。没有实力作为支撑的战略只是一种期许和愿望而已。 帕特里克•布莱克特和肯尼迪书中那些无名英雄们的力量就在于他们区分了描绘一种尖端科技与将之创造出来之间的不同。正如H•G•威尔士经典科幻小说《时间机器》（The Time Machine）中的莫洛克斯族一样，当埃洛伊族人却整天琢磨些高深的理论的时候，他们却在默默地辛勤劳动。无论是思想上还是内心中，他们都明白，创造出新的工具与技术可以催生出新的能力，而这种能力进而可以使得他们制定出成功的战略。而这就是为什么，成功的领导者都会将后勤的重要性置于战略之上。（财富中文网） 译者：唐昕昕 |
In Budiansky's telling, the Battle of the Atlantic was the main front of Blackett's war, and he was indispensable to winning it. The author of a well-received history of code-breaking, Budiansky provides a wonderful revisionist history of how intelligence derived from Bletchley Park's breakthroughs combined with Blackett's operational research to bypass and destroy the Nazi Wolfpacks.
This brutal war between submarines, convoys, and aircraft is the heart of Budiansky's narrative. The convoys that fed, fueled, and armed Britain were essential to her survival. The U-boats were killing them. They had to be stopped. As Winston Churchill observed in his memoir: "The Battle of the Atlantic was the dominating factor all through the war."
The Battle of the Atlantic also enjoys a thorough and incisive retelling in Kennedy's Engineers. It's the first of his thematic chapters, and he crisply identifies the strategic factors that went into winning it. In Kennedy's story, Blackett and Bletchley Park play less of a role than new weapons systems, convoy tactics, and aircraft to "mind the gap" at sea where convoys were must vulnerable.
"Time and time again in this particular story we see how the 'proper application' of resources led to endeavors that gave the frontline forces the instruments for winning," Kennedy observes, "Time and time again, too, we can identify where the newer application became turning points: where a certain idea was turned into reality, which people and/or organizations were responsible and how their breakthroughs directly affected the field of battle."
This leitmotif appears frequently in Kennedy's comprehensive analyses of logistical innovation in amphibious landings, the air war, confronting Hitler's Blitzkrieg, and the war in the Pacific. Each chapter can stand alone, but their cumulative impact lends coherence to his central argument that the Second World War "was won by the 'intelligent application' of superior force."
But Kennedy's insights and conclusions frankly seem at odds with his more broad and sweeping generalizations celebrating strategy. To wit, these strategies inherently required the "newer applications" and "certain ideas" and "breakthroughs" to occur. Strategy without capability is nothing but a hope and an aspiration.
The power of a Patrick Blackett and of the unsung heroes whom Kennedy celebrates is that they grasp the distinction between describing an edge and creating one. Like the Morlocks in H.G. Wells' science-fiction classic The Time Machine, they stay below doing real work while the Eloi gambol about thinking grand thoughts. Both intellectually and viscerally, they understand that creating new tools and technologies can spawn new capabilities that in turn enable successful strategies. And that, in the end, is why successful leaders tend to prioritize logistics over strategy.
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